ar X iv : c on d - m at / 0 10 52 58 14 M ay 2 00 1 Predictability of large future changes in a competitive evolving population

نویسندگان

  • D. Lamper
  • S. Howison
  • N. F. Johnson
چکیده

The dynamical evolution of many economic, sociological, biological and physical systems tends to be dominated by a relatively small number of unexpected, large changes ('extreme events'). We study the large, internal changes produced in a generic multi-agent population competing for a limited resource, and find that the level of predictability actually increases prior to a large change. These large changes hence arise as a predictable consequence of information encoded in the system's global state.

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تاریخ انتشار 2001